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The summer of 2014 was hot. Then, realizing that moscow would not support any peace initiative, and giving the order to the Ukrainian troops to counterattack, the Ukrainian authorities for the first time demonstrated to putin and the world their true strength. Significant territories were liberated from russian occupation. In particular, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, Soledar, Rubizhne, Popasna, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. And, of course, Mariupol. There was no goodwill of the occupiers in the retreat, they were forced to leave. Ten years later, these cities and towns, and many others, are under occupation. Again. And russia’s military campaign in Ukraine continues. For the whole world to see, the fifth President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said in an article for Le Figaro.
Without a radical change in approach, no defeat for russia will be final. Like any victory of russia will be the last. Remembering the previous examples of the liberation of our territories and victories is critically important. russia’s war develops cyclically. It always had bursts of activity and calmness. If these ten years should have taught us anything, it is that putin’s war is his strategic choice. The goal to which everything in today’s russia is subordinated. Mania on the verge of mental disorder. Addiction of a drug addict. The kremlin leadership seeks geopolitical revenge for the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century” – the collapse of the USSR, and will not voluntarily give up its intentions.
putin’s russia sees its revenge through the occupation and destruction of independent Ukraine and the Ukrainian nation. This is the first step. And russia does everything for the next ones. They established an iron dictatorship there a long time ago, got rid of dissent and launched a wartime economy. putin received the desired consolidation of power, which is rivaled only by Stalin’s times. A monster was born before our eyes, but some still do not believe it. That is why the kremlin is able to promote the policy of detoxification of russia and its top leadership, and consolidation in those countries and regions of the world, who are looking for more opportunities for themselves at the expense of others, primarily the West. There is no doubt that putin’s russia sees its victory in Ukraine as a loss for the West. They believe that the winner takes it all and isn’t judged.And most importantly, putin would get an opportunity for new threats, because everyone would know that there are no red lines for him. The rocket attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital is the latest and most shameful evidence of that. A putin victory would be a severe blow to the credibility of the Free World’s assurances about its ability to defend democracy and the principles of a rules-based world order. If you don’t protect Ukraine, despite its own self-sacrifice, will you be able to succeed in other parts of the world?
The cyclical nature of the russian war is once again approaching the point of regrouping. We already experienced such a stage in 2019 and we know the consequences. Markers are – talks about fatigue and exhaustion. About the desire to reconcile and stop. New peace initiatives appear like mushrooms after the rain. Following China’s February 2023 model, 6 points of Sino-Brazilian common understanding appeared. Since the beginning of July and the presidency of Hungary in the EU, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has announced a crusade for peace. His meetings with the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, putin, and then also with the candidate for the presidency of the United States, Donald Trump, caused a lot of righteous condemnation in some and sincere understanding in others. The other day, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson presented his ideas. And then former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo proposed another plan to end the war, from a position of strength. So there is no shortage of peace ideas.
In countering putin’s russia, it is always better to be guided by clear approaches. I will name the key ones. First, there should be no talks about Ukraine without Ukraine. Second, no compromises on our independence, sovereignty, and national identity. Their erosion under any pretext is tantamount to putin’s victory. Third, no compromises on territorial integrity in exchange for peace. This would not be an exchange, but the killing of the fundamental principle of the post-war world order with unpredictable consequences, and, yes, the killing of thousands of Ukrainians, including children, who, remain in the occupied territories, and continue to believe in the return of freedom thanks to the uncompromising position of the Free World. Fourth, no compromises regarding the defense capability of the state and the strengthening of the Ukrainian army, including through Western weapons and aid. Whoever does not protect his own army is doomed to lose his own state. Fifth, no compromises regarding sanctions and the responsibility of the aggressor. Without this, there will be neither safeguards to achieve victory and true peace, nor a warning to other potential aggressors. And, finally, no compromises regarding Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO. Ukraine does not need the so-called “security guarantees” that contain neither guarantees nor security. And “guarantees of membership in NATO”.Dozens of agreements on cooperation in the field of security and defense with Ukraine will not do for peace, security and stability in the world what one single document – the Washington Treaty of 1949 – is capable of doing. Only the accession of our state to it will put an end to putin’s war against democracy and all of us. Moreover, by putting an end to moscow’s neo-colonial and neo-imperialist ambitions, russia itself would finally get a chance to focus on internal changes, and not on yet another revanchist plan against its sovereign neighbors.
Ten years of confrontation did not pass in vain for russia. Instead of sanctions hitting the aggressor immediately and powerfully, their gradual application seemed to specially develop his ability to resist. Instead of Western aid to Ukraine with weapons providing an opportunity to quickly and decisively throw out the aggressor from our territory, especially after the large-scale invasion in February 2022, their indecisive transfer, delays and delays, discussions about the range and depth of strikes taught the aggressor to more effectively resist Western weapons . Instead of creating strategic uncertainty for russia, as the “Macron initiative” successfully demonstrated, and jointly confronting the aggressor, the same as the idea supported by Poland of shooting down air targets in the sky over Ukraine, the aggressor is actually given a strategic initiative without effective obstacles.
The world is still afraid to deal with the aggressor. The cyclic nature of the russian war indicates the inevitability of a new stage of escalation on the part of the kremlin. However, this threat is not inevitable. At the first stage of escalation in 2014-2015, putin’s plans were destroyed by the unity of Ukrainian society and the determination of the authorities. At the current second stage of escalation, putin was mistaken about the strength of the Ukrainian army, the unity and solidarity of the democratic world with Ukraine. Next time, if we allow it, the kremlin and its allies will be ready to destroy our shared democratic world.That is why, enough of this fear and half-measures. The Western world has everything it needs to win and strategically defeat russia in Ukraine. Stop fearing Ukraine’s victory. This victory is about preserving statehood, restoring internationally recognized borders, and protecting people. Similarly, you should not be afraid of the russian defeat. This defeat is about the withdrawal of russian troops from the occupied territories, depriving moscow of the opportunity to terrorize the world and kill people, and the responsibility for aggression. It is time to force russia toward peace, not appeasement. It is time for true transatlantic leadership that history and humanity will remember with gratitude. Time to win.
