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In the chaos that the failed American campaign in Iran has caused for the Western world, russia saw a chance to revive the slightly wilted “spirit of Anchorage,” former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Olena Zerkal writes.
Last year, this stillborn child of kremlin propaganda was supposed to realize the kremlin’s imperial ambitions in a non-military way: buddy Trump was to force Ukrainians to surrender territories. However, neither the red carpet, nor the handshakes, nor the ride in the same car made the kremlin leader “handshakeable,” nor russia a top-tier player.
The shortage of PAC-3 missiles (thanks to Trump’s Iranian campaign) hits the ability of air defense to cover critical infrastructure, and this is precisely what the kremlin is already using to scare us and Europe, whipping up panic about a terrible winter. Unfortunately, local helplessness and statements by those in power about the need to “end the war before the heating season” perfectly align with this propaganda. Such sentiments will create the most advantageous negotiating position for the russians to return to their cherished “spirit of Anchorage” and, at minimum, advance the scenario of the Finlandization of Ukraine. And at maximum, to insist on the Georgian scenario with full control over political and economic processes.
putin will agree only to a truce that allows him to declare himself the winner and then achieve his main goal: demonstrating NATO’s incapability as a bloc. He still hopes that by allowing Trump to take credit for a ceasefire, he will manage to further split the United States and Europe, and when something goes wrong – there is always the option to blame Ukraine for the breakdown of talks and continue to pound its cities with ballistic missiles. If everything goes as planned, against the backdrop of no visible aggression, russia’s ability to manipulate European politicians will increase – up to attempts to block negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Under such conditions, what options does Ukraine have? The most important one is not to buy, at any price, what is being sold to us. The kremlin’s main weapon this autumn is not ballistic missiles, but moral panic, which, unfortunately, more and more people are succumbing to day by day. These waves can even be traced on social media: following yet another call to immediately leave the country comes a masterfully whipped-up fake about the cancellation of deferments for parents with many children, immediately followed by another one, about the mobilization of childless women.
Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling, back in 1960 in his “The Strategy of Conflict,” explained: it is easier to coerce someone through threats when that person themselves fills in the reality of those threats, believing in them in advance. Critical thinking under such conditions becomes no less important a component of defense than air defense. We must enter negotiations, which will most likely begin in the autumn, without any illusions: it will not be possible to end them quickly in Ukraine’s interest. We must prepare for a long and complex negotiation process, in which our task will be to hold our ground and hold on to our allies. And that is possible only with a cool head.
