Macron said that the main opponent of NATO is not russia or China, but international terrorism. Here in Germany, I often hear that the main threat to democracy is not the kremlin, but the authoritarian regime in China, writes Igor Eidman, russian sociologist who lives in Berlin.
Of course, the Chinese partocratic regime is disgusting. And what he does to the Uighurs is a crime against humanity. But China is a historically self-sufficient, non-expansionist country. For centuries, it was subjected to aggression from the northern nomads, then the countries of the West and Japan. The Chinese themselves have never shown interest in capturing distant colonies and world domination. And even now, China is not even trying to forcibly “return to its home harbor” breakaway Taiwan, although there are all military opportunities for this. Economic development and the strengthening of control over their own population are more important for the Chinese authorities than expansion.
International [read Islamic] terrorism is certainly a dangerous threat. But the Islamists, fortunately, are fragmented and do not have even a thousandth of the military resources of the West. The short history of ISIS has shown that from a military point of view they are not a real threat.
At the same time, putin’s regime in russia has a huge nuclear missile arsenal and pursues expansionist goals based on the russian historical traditions. The authorities in the country are people with criminal psychology who perceive violence as the basis for achieving their goals. They are headed by a man who allows himself to joke on the topic of the nuclear apocalypse, and, judging by at least this, he has lost his adequacy. Such a dangerous combination of risks is fraught with a great war and a global catastrophe. At this point, only russia can be a global threat to peace.