The main messages from moscow over the past month and a half are about the necessity of negotiations. In the famous novel “The Godfather”, a mafia boss was asked how to find out who is a traitor. “The one who comes first with an offer to negotiate with the enemy is a traitor,” the Former Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuriy Lutsenko said in an interview with prm.ua.
So, the idea of bringing Ukraine and russia to the negotiating table is again on the agenda. This is putin’s idea, it is his lifeline in a situation that has turned out to be deplorable for him from all sides. We can look at several aspects.
In russia, there is a “fund of future generations”, a kind of “stash” for future crises. Over the past year, it has decreased from 12 to 6 trillion rubles. Despite the declared budget surplus, last month they withdrew another 1 trillion rubles from the fund.
According to our intelligence, the russian stock of shells is tight, and this is a key tool of war because the current war is an artillery war. The situation with missiles is also critical, and they had to purchase iranian drones. And the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has coped with this problem, and in fact, now, on combat duty, domestic military defense systems are standing in for combat duty, which do not allow these Chinese-Iranian-russian products to damage Ukrainian facilities. So, both military and economic aspects are unfavorable for putin. The political situation for him is no better.
putin practically begs for negotiations, he activates all possible and impossible political resources, he uses all his secret and not-so-secret agents of influence, useful idiots, etc. We are concerned about the letter of 30 congressmen from the Democratic Party, who called on the US president to intensify diplomatic efforts for negotiations between Ukraine and russia. This signal is alarming even though the letter has been withdrawn.
We see the statements of some European leaders who talk about the need to probe the diplomatic situation. I personally do not like the statement of the head of the President’s Office, Mr. Yermak, with the phrase “urgent cessation of hostilities is the only way for russia to save face.” Not to withdraw from the occupied territories, not to return its territories to Ukraine, not to pay compensation for all the destruction and deaths, but to “stop shooting.”
From my point of view, this is part of the same song as the letter from the American Democrats. In order to force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table, which we have refused more than once and President Zelenskyi has been supporting this position steadily, blackmail is used. And it consists now in the fact that in the course of russia’s war against Ukraine a “dirty” nuclear bomb will be used. Everyone understands who will use it though.
Nuclear blackmail since the 1961 Caribbean crisis, when nuclear missiles were spotted in Cuba, is a scary thing. Then America and the USSR came to the brink of nuclear war, when all the troops were ready. And since that time, humanity has been analyzing what stopped the catastrophe then. Therefore, the phrase “nuclear bomb” is a severe alert signal for everyone, and putin is desperately trying to use this narrative. The same applies to biological weapons – blackmail for the sake of negotiations.
Therefore, it is necessary to treat this responsibly and not allow even random words and actions that can play along with the terrorist russian empire.
The only subject for negotiations with russia is the menu at putin’s funeral.