I just read the German Civil Defense Risk Analysis Report 2023 and it is most ridiculously outdated

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Against the background of the attack by an aggressor [not actually mentioning any possible aggressors], the German Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief, in close coordination with the Territorial Command of the Bundeswehr, has designed a possible and plausible course of the conflict as an overall scenario based on the findings from the war in Ukraine. Is it a viable plan? Let’s find out, writes Bohdan Ukowski for uatribune.com.

It should be taken into account, that the scenario only describes one of many possible conflict scenarios, which is divided into four phases, each representing escalation levels, which are briefly outlined below:

Phase I (hybrid threats) is characterized by hybrid actions by an aggressor. These include, in particular, disinformation campaigns as well as the preparation and isolated implementation of espionage activities, cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and attacks on vital and defense-important facilities and critical infrastructure. The aim of these disinformation campaigns in the media and social networks is to agitate the population. They are intended to influence public opinion, divide the population, destabilize society and undermine trust in liberal democracy. Activities that aim to restrict or make impossible the civilian and military leadership, reconnaissance and action capabilities in advance of a conflict are also prepared and carried out on an isolated basis. Phase I is mainly carried out in secret, so that individual actions cannot be clearly attributed to any state. This phase lasts several years with fluctuating intensity.

If this is the plan for the future, it has one major drawback, all of that already happened. Hybrid actions, disinformation campaigns, espionage activities, cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage. Have you been present these last 10 years? Are you really preparing to counter this “influencing of public opinion” after the fact?

In Phase II there is a military deployment of the aggressor troops on the eastern borders of the NATO alliance and in response to it a deployment of NATO forces as a deterrent. The aggressor is increasingly carrying out espionage, cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and attacks in order to prevent possible troop movements within NATO territory, and, in particular, in Germany and thus to delay the deployment of armed forces on NATO’s eastern flank. Phase II continues over a period of several months.

I don’t want to rain on your parade, but that also happened. This is a thing of the past. russia already deployed its troops in Belarus and threatened with any possible threat they could think of. Allies, in response, have enhanced NATO’s forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

In Phase III, the aggressor attacks the borders of NATO alliance territory with military means. The threshold to classic war has now been crossed. There are selective attacks using conventional weapons and non-conventional means, including on targets in the territory of Germany. In space, disruptions and isolated failures of civilian and military satellites happen. The hybrid warfare continues. Phase III will take at least a year.

This assessment seems closer to reality, but this story about attacks on civilian and military satellites is still far off. They continue to believe that russia is capable of doing it only because it threatened with that. But russians also claimed that they are the second army in the world for some reason. So, I guess, disruption is possible but still highly improbable, and very unlikely to cause any major problems.

In Phase IV, the “opposing troops” manage to break through NATO’s defense lines into the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany. As a result, fighting takes place on land, at sea, and in the air. It also begins in space for the first time in the history of conflicts of global proportions. Phase IV will end with a negotiated ceasefire after several months at the earliest.

A lot of misunderstandings here. The “opposing” russian troops managed to break into Germany? They have to break into Poland first, naturally. So you will know in advance. Also, you should already be there because of Article 5, right? The fighting begins in space? Really? Do you have a Death Star in space, do russians? Very unrealistic, as much as the assertions that it “will end with a negotiated ceasefire after several months.” Nobody knows when the conflict of the described epic proportions will end.

Within this overall scenario, which acts as a conflict framework, the responsible departments and divisional authorities can develop sub-scenarios that differ.

As they should have, years before. But it is almost never too late.

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