russian forces will not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032 at their current rate of advance — if they can seize it at all. This was reported by the US Institute for the Study of War.
The russian rate of advance across the theater was 2.91 square kilometers per day in August 2026, a slight increase compared to recent months. The average russian rate of advance for russian forces’ priority effort in Donetsk Oblast was lower at only 2.36 square kilometers per day in August. russian forces would take until October 2, 2032, to seize the remaining 19 percent of Donetsk Oblast at this rate — over a year after the next State Duma elections, which will likely be held in September 2031.ISW is not prepared to assess that russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast on any timeline, however. russian forces will have to fight attritional urban battles through the cities of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt before attempting to advance across fields — terrain that russian forces have historically struggled to advance through.
The russian rate of advance has slowed significantly across the theater since 2025, when russia’s rate of advance had already begun to slow. Ukraine has proven that it can contest the tactical initiative in several areas of the frontline and hinder russian logistics in 2026, and russia has struggled to counter these Ukrainian efforts.
Neither the trajectory nor any likely dynamics of the current conflict suggest that russian forces will be able soon to accelerate their rate of advance dramatically as long as Western support for Ukraine continues at roughly current levels.
