Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the russians may have already lost more than 70% of their combat-capable long-range Tu-22M3 bombers, defence-ua.com reported.
It should be recalled that since 2022, this is already the third time a russian Tu-22M3 has crashed in the Irkutsk region, where the “Belaya” airbase is located. Specifically, one crashed in 2024, another in 2025, and now a third in 2026.
If counting overall since the start of the full-scale invasion:
- December 2022, 3 Tu-22M3 damaged at the “Dyagilevo” airbase
- August 2023, one Tu-22M3 destroyed and another 2 damaged at the “Soltsy” airbase
- April 2024, one shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine using an S-200 air defense system over the Stavropol region of russia
- July 2024, 2 Tu-22M3 damaged at the “Olenya” airbase
- August 2024, crashed in the Irkutsk region of russia
- April 2025, crashed in the Irkutsk region of russia
- June 2025, SBU operation “Web,” 12 Tu-22M3 destroyed at the “Olenya,” “Belaya,” and “Dyagilevo” airbases
- June 2026, crashed in the Irkutsk region of russia
That is, in total since 2022, 24 Tu-22M3 have been destroyed and damaged. It should be taken into account here that the russians stopped producing Tu-22s in any modification back in 1993, and no replacement exists even in plans for the near future. The stockpile of spare parts for them is extremely limited, so even minor damage can lead to the write-off of an entire Tu-22M3.
So now, with that figure of 24 destroyed and damaged Tu-22M3, how many such bombers could the russians still have left, and how many were in operational condition at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022?
As of February 2025, according to estimates by The Military Balance, the russians had 55 Tu-22M3 bombers in service. Since then, the russians have lost another 14 such aircraft due to crashes and the “spiderweb” operation.
That is, in total, the russian military may have 41 Tu-22M3 bombers remaining. However, it should be taken into account that a considerable number of them are in an unfit-for-operational state, and some have become spare parts donors for others, but on paper they are still counted as being in service.
To find out how many Tu-22M3 the russians might actually have in operational condition, one should pay attention to the statement made in 2023 by the then-head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, immediately after the bombers were struck at the “Soltsy” airbase.
At that time, according to his information, the russians had 27 operational Tu-22M3 units and another 2 under repair after the attack. From this, it can be calculated that at the start of the full-scale invasion, the russians could have had 33-34 Tu-22M3 in operational condition.
If we assume that all Tu-22M3 that were struck on the ground as a result of operations by the Defense Forces of Ukraine were in operational condition, and that the damaged aircraft could not be restored, then the russians may currently have approximately 9-10 operational bombers of this type. And since 2022, russia could have lost more than 70% of all combat-capable Tu-22M3.
